INTRODUCTION

 

Distance education systems are based on a combination of communication, computer, video, and Internet technologies (Chute, Thompson, and Hanrock, 1999).  On-line distance education is the present “state of the art” distance education technology.  Web based technology provides global accessibility and increases flexibility with easy updated content (Clark and Lyons, 1999).  Major trends in technology including digitilization, storage, increasing processing power, and universal communications will further impact on-line learning (Oblinger and Verville, 1999). 

 

PRODUCT LIFECYCLE

 

Is distance education going through the product lifecycle?  The product lifecycle takes a product or service through a series of stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline (McCarthy and Perreault, Jr., 1990).  Distance education as a concept may be through maturity while the new on-line technology in distance education is at the end of the introduction period of the product life cycle.  Distance education began in 1840 when Sir Isaac Pitman developed his shorthand course through the mail (Phillips, 1999).

 

On-line distance education will be entering the growth stage at the start of the next millennium.  It will saturate the market in the first decade.  Product differentiation will be based on instructional reputation (quality), costs, flexibility, and completion time.  Competitors enter the market causing downward sloping demand curves resulting in product variety and improvement to compete better.  These four variables will determine if on-line distance education follows the innovation of the automobile, moving to a new level of product satisfaction in its 100+ years or with the 90 day life cycle of the Rubik’s cube. (McCarthy and Perreault, Jr., 1990).

 

ON-LINE COURSES

 

There are some courses that just don’t fit.  Can you teach a speech course, or a physical education course on-line?  What on-line courses are successfully being offered?  Charles Grimes at Malone College is offering an eight-week on-line course in physical education.  “Mr. Grimes, who calls himself an on-line personal trainer, says he has found several examples of text-based health and wellness courses on the Internet” (Carr, 1999).

 

There really seems to be no boundaries as to what can be offered on-line.  For sure, there is a growing demand for career oriented on-line courses aimed at non-traditional students.  The modern world is moving into the information economy.  “ In the information economy the educated person will be somebody who learned how to learn, and who continues learning” (Drucker, 1998).  There’s a growing market for on-line degrees in business, healthcare systems and administration, information technology and general studies (Blumenstyke, 1999).  “...no subject area is unsuited for delivery through the Internet” (Forsyth, 1996).

 

THE NEXT MILLENNIUM

 

“In 1999, some things are easy to predict, computers will continue to get smaller, faster, and cheaper...” (Raeburn, 1999).  It is necessary to walk in the shoes of H.G. Wells and Jules Verne to predict the future of on-line distance education in the next millennium.  Just like their novels, the next 100 years will be a surprise.

 

Higher education will witness a dramatic paradigm shift due to the impact of technology.  How far can higher education go in integrating technology into the curriculum?  Changes in higher education are occurring with advances in technology, declining public financial support, increasing tuition, corporate providers, and a changing student population.  Public universities are being challenged by corporations in the private sector to meet the needs of students in the next millennium.  Universities will have to develop new strategies to compete in the twenty-first century. 

 

University business courses can utilize computer software supported by real-world applications.  “... to move beyond knowledge and comprehension to application and analysis of information” (Dockstader, 1999).  There will be a transformation of the education process.  “The source of this transformation is the interaction among technologies between qualitative and quantitative analysis, and among students and faculty” (Fraud and Broesamle, 1996).  This transformation will enable business schools to offer user friendly curriculum that can compete in the global economy.

 

If today’s higher education does not proceed at a faster speed, corporations will respond with the HMO model for higher education (NEA, 1999).  According to the NEA the future for higher education is up for grabs with two possible scenarios.  One scenario is a market driven future with a redesigned educational system by business leaders seeking the most cost-efficient operation.  The second scenario is a quality driven future where higher education is the right of every citizen.  Educational institutions are open around the clock offering on-line education to the world (NEA, 1999). 

 

The second scenario supports life long learning offering the world’s workers cutting edge skills to prepare them for the changing workplace.  The advent of just in time opening learning (j i tol) allows workers quick and easy access to asynchronous learning (McConnel and Hammond, 1999).  Since (j i tol) is not constrained by time and place, distance learning expands and liberates the educational market.

 

Higher education is confused about how to proceed.“This confusion is present in a host of educational arenas, such as admission criteria, registration mechanisms, fee structures, residence requirements, access to traditional university resources and support services, laboratory experiences, integration of diverse technologies into instructional methods, reward systems for professors, intellectual property rights, course marketing, and turf battles among colleges and universities” (Klemm, 1999).

 

So, where is on-line distance learning going?  What will higher education be like in 2050?  “Computers and software will be so integrated into educational resources that they will be invisible to the user of the resources (Morrison, 1999).  Artificial  intelligence  will

become an assistant to the instructor.  The virtual classroom will change in ways that can only be imagined.  If I put on the shoes I mentioned in the beginning of the paper, I can see the changes.  A business student enters a computer automatic virtual environment (CAVE) to participate in a Financial Management Class (Doyle, 1999).  The student is surrounded with a projected image of todays problem assignment and lecturer.  The student is in Buenos Aires, Argentina and the lecturer is in Bemidji, Minnesota, USA.  Yet, at this moment they are together for todays lesson just like a traditional student is in the same classroom in 1999. 

 

 

 

REFERENCES

Blumenstyk, Goldie, 1999. Moving Beyond Textbook Sales, Harcourt Plans to Open a For-Profit University. The Chronicle of Higher Education (4 June): p.A32

 

Carr, Sarah, 1999. Can You Teach Fitness On-Line? Malone College Gets Ready to Find Out.  The Chronicle of Higher Education (24 October): p .A59

 

Chute, Alan, Melody Thompson, and BurtonHancock, 1999. The McGraw-Hill Handbook of Distance Learning. 1^st edition, New York, New York: McGraw Hill. Publishers

Clark, Ruth Colvin and Chopeta Lyons, 1999. Using Web-Based Training Wisely. Training (July):56.

Dockstader, Jolene, 1999. Teachers of the 21^st Century Know What, Why, and How of Technology Integration. T.H.E. Journal (January):73-74.

 

Doyle, Phil, 1999. Virtual Reality and Visualization in Education. -Syllabus (May): 18-22.

 

Drucker, Peter, 1998. on the Profession of Management. Harvard Business Press, p.66.

 

Forsyth, Ian, 1996. Teaching and Learning Materials and the Internet. 1^st edition London, Finglord: Kogan Page Publisher: p36.

 

Frand, Jason and William Broesamle, 1996. Technological Innovation and The Paradigm Shift In Management Education At http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty; INTERNET.

 

Klemm, William R., 1999. Will Distance Education Really Revolutionize Higher Education? at http://horizon.unc.edu/TS/vision; INTERNET

 

McCarthy, E. Jerome and William Perrault, Jr., 1999. Basic Marketing: A Managerial Approach. C Homewood, Illinois: Irwin: Chapter10.

 

McConnell, David and Michael Hammond, 1999. Just in Time Open Learning:Issues and Possibilities: at http://www.leeds.ac.OK/projects/jitol/; INTERNET

 

Morrison, James L., 1999. Reevaluating the Basics: An Interview with Judith V. Boettcher about the Future of Education: at http://horizon.unc.edu/TS/vision/; INTERNET

 

NEA: Higher Education The Future of Higher Of Education, 1999. At http://www.nea.org/he/future/market.html; INTERNET

 

Oblinger, Diana G. and Anne-Lee Verville, 1999. Information Technology as a Change Agent. Educom Review (January/February): 46-55.

 

Phillips, Vicky, 1999. Education in The Electronic Ether: On Being a Virtual Professor. At http://www.geteducated.com/articles/virtprod.htm; INTERNET

 

Raeburn, Paul. Business Week 100 years of Innovation Summer 1999.